Transformasi Digital, Stabilitas Politik-Ekonomi, dan Kompromi Kebijakan Pembangunan dalam Jalur Pertumbuhan Indonesia: Analisis Kualitatif
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Abstrak
Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia selama periode 2020–2026 mencerminkan proses pemulihan pascapandemi COVID-19 yang didukung oleh percepatan transformasi digital dan stabilitas politik. Namun, laju pertumbuhan ekonomi masih berada pada kisaran 5 persen dan belum mencapai target pembangunan jangka panjang yang lebih tinggi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis peran transformasi digital dan stabilitas politik dalam membentuk jalur pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia, mengidentifikasi peluang dan tantangan digitalisasi, serta mengevaluasi efektivitas kebijakan pembangunan selama periode 2020–2026. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif dengan metode studi kasus. Data diperoleh melalui studi dokumentasi dan telaah literatur dari berbagai sumber, meliputi laporan pemerintah, dokumen kebijakan, publikasi ilmiah, serta data institusional terkait transformasi digital, stabilitas politik, dan pembangunan ekonomi. Analisis data dilakukan menggunakan analisis tematik melalui tahapan reduksi data, kategorisasi, interpretasi, dan penarikan kesimpulan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa transformasi digital berkontribusi terhadap peningkatan produktivitas, efisiensi ekonomi, perluasan inklusi keuangan, dan penguatan daya saing UMKM. Dampak tersebut diperkuat oleh kebijakan pembangunan infrastruktur yang dilaksanakan terutama pada periode sebelum 2025, seperti pembangunan Ibu Kota Nusantara (IKN), jalan, dan bendungan, yang berperan dalam memperkuat konektivitas dan integrasi ekonomi antarwilayah. Sementara itu, pada periode 2025–2026, implementasi program Makan Bergizi Gratis (MBG) dan penguatan Koperasi Merah Putih mencerminkan orientasi kebijakan pada penguatan ekonomi kerakyatan dan inklusi sosial-ekonomi, meskipun di sisi lain menimbulkan peningkatan kebutuhan pembiayaan fiskal. Dari perspektif makroekonomi, peningkatan komitmen fiskal tersebut berpotensi memengaruhi persepsi risiko pasar yang tercermin pada volatilitas nilai tukar rupiah dan dinamika pasar modal. Stabilitas politik tetap menjadi faktor kunci dalam menjaga kepercayaan investor dan keberlanjutan kebijakan pembangunan. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa sinergi antara transformasi digital, stabilitas politik, dan dinamika trade-off kebijakan pembangunan merupakan determinan penting dalam jalur pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia yang inklusif dan berkelanjutan.
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